Journal 7

Modern Egypt currently sits at a critical juncture in determining its path forward as a state and player in global politics. The stabilizing presence of the military provides a much needed degree of order in a country rife with a history of political unrest and shifting international alliances, yet militaries are seldom suited to the intricacies of statecraft and bureaucracy. Al-Sisi could very easily install himself as Egypt’s next strongman leader, but with control over both the military and political spheres his influence could very easily expand into the realm of a dictator or even tyrant. The police state and limitations on free press Sisi has imposed do not bode well for those in Egypt who hoped for a peaceful democratic transition into a more republican state.

While Al-Sisi has not proven to be exactly promising as a champion for democratic ideals, his injunction in the political process was motivated by genuine unrest among a people who were eager to see military intervention against Morsi. Given the chance, Morsi could very well have ended up imposing an Islamic state upon Egypt, despite mass popular dissent. Given the unique role of the Egyptian military as an informal check against the dictatorial powers of past presidents, Al-Sisi’s coup was not unprecedented and may have saved the country from falling into the brutal civil war so many other neighboring Arab Spring states have encountered. While Al-Sisi has not been an exemplar of restraint in his new role, media blackouts and even prolonged martial law are relatively small prices to pay to avoid a potentially generation-scarring conflict.

In order for Egypt to thrive as a country it must move away from its Cold War model of total allegiance to the West, namely the United States. That is not to say Egypt should sever existing ties to the US, but rather explore the realm of leveraging new alliances against old ones in order to achieve the best possible outcome for its citizenry. The US is deeply invested in Egypt and has been for decades. On the surface this relationship, in which Egypt receives massive military aid, may seem to make Egypt dependent upon the good graces of the US, but in reality it has made the US dependent upon Egyptian acceptance of the aid to ensure US influence in the country and region.

The rapidly growing presence of Chinese investment in places like Cairo and the Egyptian public sector provides Egyptian leaders with a unique and almost paradoxical bargaining chip, as they can now threaten to refuse US aid in preference of China’s. Only when Egypt is truly free of Western manipulation can the longstanding impacts of colonialism, both culturally and economically, begin to fade. Egypt is still very much tethered to the US politically, economically, and militarily, but is in an unprecedentedly powerful bargaining position to reclaim portions of its state and economy that have long been controlled by exterior interests.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/africa/egypt-new-capital/

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/08/15/egyp-a15.html

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News Post: Violence Against Coptic Christians Surges in Sinai

The Coptic Christian minority in Egypt has long been the target of militant extremist groups in the country. The surge of killings against Christians in the Sinai region following el-Sissi’s coup has been a powerful backlash against the Coptic community’s support for el-Sissi. As horrific as this most recent killing is, perhaps the most concerning part of this article is that Egyptian soldiers only felt safe reporting this anonymously to the press as they had been ordered not to. With the media relying on piecemeal information provided by soldiers who have been ordered not to contact them, there is no telling exactly how far violence has or will spread in the region.

http://nypost.com/2017/02/24/isis-militants-gun-down-another-christian-in-egypt/

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Reading Post: The Rise of the State System in Africa by Carolyn Warner

Reading Journal

Carolyn Warner, The Rise of the State System in Africa

Carolyn Warner displays a rare eagerness to engage with massive questions about the structure of human society and how it applies in Africa. Many of the systems of societal organization she examines probe deeply into the origins and utility of an institution modern thinkers often take as a given: the state. The concept of the nation-state, popularized in sixteenth century Europe and globalized by colonization, is a relatively new one, which explains some of its shortcomings outside of Europe.

While scholars certainly debate precisely what a nation-state is, its general definition is perhaps best provided by the European examples that spawned it. Colonial era France, Britain, and Germany may appear anything but similar at first, but at their hearts each possessed a fairly uniform culture, racial populous, territorial boundary and agreement that they were one people. There was an understanding and agreement that the structure of society would work towards benefitting this (generally) unified citizenry’s best interests and that it would provide security against any and all external physical threats. This very broad concept of a nation-state seems to have a fairly universal application to any human society, and this is reflected in Europeans’ attempts to project it upon those they conquered. Many of the qualities this nation model is built on however take very different forms in African societies.

Unity is critical to a nation-state, as all those governed have to generally agree on common interests to work towards and must, at a fundamental level, think together. This level of cohesion is essentially a necessity in the geographically cramped conditions of Europe, but for a vast variety of reasons does not appear as commonly in African societies. North African Islamic states did not have the same degree of centralization the Catholic church afforded some European states. Indeed, the multiplicity of cultures that follow Muslim teachings complicates just what qualities a Muslim state needs to succeed.

The nature of Islam and its teachings on how to govern draw no significant lines between the ruler of the society and the head of the religion. Merging the roles of political and religious leadership into one (often referred to as a Caliph) has a multitude of implications that made pre-colonial North African societies largely unfit to meet the definition of a “nation.” The separation of church and state was integral to the European concept of the nation and typically came in the form of the Pope/Church’s authority vs that of the King. The duality of a Caliph’s role put them in charge of not just a state, but of an entire religion. Islam’s interpretation of this role was that this authority meant the Caliph ruled all Muslims, not just those within the physical territory he controlled. This view subverted the European idea that a state was defined by its physical borders. More importantly however, this world perspective made the head of Islam responsible for a vast and diverse array of cultures, local political systems, and concepts of governance.

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“Le Franc CFA est un Outil de la Servitude Volontaire”/”The CFA Franc is a Tool of Voluntary Servitude”

I don’t know if many people in the course speak or understand French, but I came accross this interesting interview from France 24. It features the co-author of a book titled Le Franc CFA est un Outil de la Servitude Volontaire (The CFA Franc is a Tool of Voluntary Servitude). His main argument is that the 14 African states who are still under the CFA Franc zone are voluntarily “serving” France and purposely putting themselves under this neo-colonialist ruling system because they have not changed their currency unlike other countries like Mauritania, Algeria, Morrocco etc… I don’t personally agree with it, but I found it interesting.

http://www.france24.com/fr/entretien-intelligence-economique

Have a great break!

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Journal 6

Money matters, and in this realm, size really matters when it comes to the influence and importance of foreign countries to Egypt. Home to the worlds’ largest Arab population, which has been relentlessly expanding for decades, Egypt has few sources of revenues to grow its economy. Running a 35% budget deficit for 2015, with an unemployment rate of 13%, and struggling to revive tourism, one of its major sources of income which has been devastated by terrorist attacks, Egypt has had to increasingly rely on outside sources of aid and loans. Traditionally, the United States has been the country’s major source of external aid, dating back to the 1979 Egypt-Israeli Peace Treaty that the U.S. brokered. As part of the negotiations, the U.S. pledged $1.3 billion in military aid yearly plus a variable amount of economic aid.  That sum has remained remarkably unchanged across multiple U.S. administrations. Even through the populous Arab Spring overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, the election of Muslim Brotherhood leader Morsi and the subsequent the military coup that deposed him, and the eventual rise of military leader Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, U.S. aid has continued to flow, interrupted only temporarily as the Obama administration raised transient and symbolic gestures of opposition over the fall of democratic rule.

The often waffling political support offered by the Obama administration angered and frustrated the Sissi government who perceived their own actions as saving the country from a leader, while elected democratically, began to transform his government into an increasingly autocratic government that progressively began to oppress all opposition in a many similar to prior autocrats, curbing fundamental rights. These conditions set the stage for a change in the monetary power dynamics to occur. In March 2015, the Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pledged $12 billion to help stabilize Egypt’s economy, which was on top of over $20 billion already committed by the Gulf States since the coup that empowered Sisi.  This move was objected to by Washington.  Many see the Gulf states actions as nothing less than part of a Saudi led counter-revolution, designed to halt the spread of the Arab Spring / Awakening to the Gulf monarchies and a way to stabilize the Sunni heartland against further destabilization by either Islamic radicalism or Shia intrusion (both of which have plagued Iraq and Syria).

The new player in the foreign aid power dynamic is China. In March 2016, China announced it would design and construct a new capital for Egypt and has pledged an astonishing $45 billion in financing to date. It will be a completely new city, built east of Cairo. China’s entry brings a new economic superpower into the equation, turning Egypt’s vision eastward and eclipsing the historical support provided by Washington. It also gives Egypt its own “China card” to play if it feels too beholden to its Gulf neighbors.

Egypt is evolving, if not democratically, perhaps economically. The current major foreign influences can be roughly divided into three major powers; the United States representing Egypt’s traditional supporter over the past four decades, the Gulf monarchies (led by Saudi Arabia) representing a core Arab Sunni power block hoping to preserve some vestige of regional status quo in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and China who has regional economic interests driving it foray into this shifting paradigm. In the balance is Egypt’s tenuous economic base desperately trying to support an expanding and restless population.

 

References:

Central Intelligence Agency. “Egypt.” The World Factbook. November 22, 2016. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html (accessed November 30, 2016).

Kamrava, Mehran. “The Arab Spring and the Saudi-led Counterrevolution.” Orbis (Foreign Policy research Institute), 2012: 96-104.

Monks, Kieron. “Egypt is getting a new capital – coutesy of China.” CNN. October 10, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/africa/egypt-new-capital/ (accessed November 4, 2016).

Parasie, Nicolas, and Jay Solomon. “Gulf States Pledge Aid to Egypt, U.S. Balks.” The Wall Street Journal. March 13, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-states-pledge-additional-12-billion-in-aid-to-egypt-1426262660.

 

 

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Rwanda – Reconciliation with Its Past

Rwanda has made great strides in the past two decades, since the genocide.  Hutus and Tutsis live in harmony with one another and many Hutus participate in the government. The cycle of violence that for so long plagued, the nation seems to have come to end. Kigali, Rwanda’s capital is often held up as a model for a clean, sustainable city and was even host of major climate change agreements recently.  Today many regional NGOs are based in Rwanda and it has shown early signs of success in nascent textile and IT sectors.  Still Rwanda has a ways to go.

It remains to be seen whether civil society of Rwanda can endure after Kagame steps down.  He has already expressed his intent to violate the constitutional limit to his term. If Kagame fails to implement Democracy during his lifetime,  Rwandan society may be prone to more violent outbreaks upon his death.  Kagame should make steps to build democratic institutions in his country.

Economic development should not come at the expense of Rwanda’s neighbors.  Rwanda has incurred on the sovereignty of the DRC for the last two decades.  This has rendered the DRC prone to violent outbreaks.  If Rwanda is to succeed it must be part of peaceful region.  To this end, I believe that Rwanda should work with the African Union to move towards continental integration.  Pan Africanism has been a buzzword since the post-colonial period, but if Rwanda and Africa as a whole is to be competitive on the global stage, then unity is essential.  Just as Europe healed its previous wounds by moving towards continental political integration, so to can the peoples of Africa move past its violent pass and realize a better future through unity.  This past summer I was in kigali when they were holding the annual African Union summit.  In the immaculate city,  I couldnt help but feel a tangible sense of optimism for a country that has been through some of the most violent times in modern memory.

 

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In the News: DRC and Social Media

I found this article fascinating on a number of fronts.  It is clear from our most recent election that online news and social media, while forces capable of mobilizing citizens to action, can also obfuscate truth and lead to undemocratic outcomes.  For the past decade, dictatorial regimes have already been using social media and the online press to advance their own interests at the expense of democratic values.  In Equatorial Guinea, Obiang employs a Washington based Public Relations firm to clean his image both online and in front of the American government.  Rwanda similarly hires Western PR firms, noticeably using Racepoint to brandish its image EU policymakers.

Kabila’s move mirrors those of Arab dictators during the Arab spring who sought to reverse the tide of revolution by controlling online media. In Egypt, twitter was blocked.  China noticeably as well extensively monitors its internet and blocks most western social media sites. Earlier this fall, mass protests swept across Kinshasa as Kabila moved to delay elections. It is clear that the government anticipates further protests to take place and is moving to mitigate such threats by undermining online organization. However violence will likely though since Kinshasa doesn’t have a central square like Cairo’s Tahrir square it will be easier for the government to manage the demonstrations.

 

 

DR Congo plans to shut down social media ahead of next week’s political protests

 

DR Congo plans to shut down social media ahead of next week’s political protests

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Nigeria’s Room for Improvement

Nigeria needs to focus on its own domestic issues if there will be any more successful engagement with the world. With Nigeria’s abundance in wealth from its vast oil deposits and being known as one of the richest countries in Africa, Nigeria has had plenty of foreign partners and has an enormous amount of potential to not only revamp its own currently weak infrastructures but the ones of neighboring countries around it as well. However, some major debilitating issues such as corruption, poverty, and terrorism are not addressed over the coming years, Nigeria will prevent itself from any reaching its maximum potential and seeing any noticeable improvements within their society.

Over the last five decades, Nigeria has been susceptible to disgusting amounts of corruption and bribery, through government officials siphoning off millions and sometimes billions of dollars to themselves and a small minority of Nigerian elites and military officials. Such corruption has caused there to be an enormous amount of disparity between the upper and lower classes, the creation of poor infrastructures and school systems that do not receive proper attention and maintenance, and large amounts of Nigerian citizens becoming unemployed or citizens not being able to obtain a job at all due to such poor infrastructures and school systems. However, the most unfortunate part about the corruption that has taken place in Nigeria is that most of its citizens have increasingly grown aware of what is going on within their government and are growing strong feelings of resentment and lack of any trust in their current government system. Naturally, when a nation’s government is unable to carry out basic societal responsibilities and provide for its citizens, it eventually loses its legitimacy and respect from its own citizens, causing them to naturally pledge their allegiance to a more responsive authority, which, in some cases, has taken the form of Boko Haram leaders, allowing the Boko Haram to gain membership and violently reign terror within the entire West African region. Furthermore, not only are Nigerian citizens lacking trust in the government, but foreign investors and foreign aid organizations are beginning to have this same lack of trust as well, feeling that their money is not being allocated properly. And, with the Boko Haram violently making its presence known in Nigeria and its other neighboring countries in the Lake Chad region, Nigeria needs this foreign aid more than ever.

In order for Nigeria to see any noticeable amounts of growth and reach its full potential, there needs to be leadership in Nigeria that will take the responsibility and initiative to properly allocate the large amounts of oil money earned annually into its infrastructures and citizens to create an environment that sees less impoverished and unemployed Nigerians and a flourishing private market that will allow for more foreign countries to want to invest in Nigeria. However, if Nigeria does not make the necessary changes to its society, government, and economy, it will remain a country full of “what if’s” and continue to head in the wrong direction.

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Herbst and Mills Article Review

After reading the Jeffery Herbst and Greg Mills piece “Africa in 2020: Three Scenarios for the Future,” I found the article to be both insightful yet contradictory. In this piece, Herbst and Mills go in depth about three potential outcomes that could take place in Africa over the next fourteen years by outlining the specific policies and procedures that could take place in Africa that could lead to these three potential outcomes. Although I found the three outcomes that Herbst and Mills portray in their article to be clear, I felt that some of the necessary steps that Africa needed to take in order to reach some of the outcomes that they proposed to be unrealistic, especially within the case of the “Africa takes charge” outcome.

In the “Africa takes charge outcome” that Herbst and Mills portray, they suggest that Africa could have success by taking development and politics into its own hands and that reform taking place across Africa on the domestic, regional, and international levels could happen if Africa’s big states lead as “exemplars of success.” However, not only does Africa contain some of the poorest countries in the world, who do not have the financial or political resources to take on development by itself, but also almost all of the large countries that exist within Africa, with the exception of South Africa, have not shown any signs of leadership as they deal with their own problems. I find this to be quite contradictory because although it is true that as countries start to develop, they are better able to help themselves as well as their neighbors, I find it inherently strange that in the outcome of Africa taking charge on its responsibilities, Herbst and Mills neglect the importance of outside foreign investment and presence in Africa. Because not every country in Africa has profitable natural resources that can help spur growth domestically, regionally, and internationally, outside investment and influence should be seen as a major factor in the development of most of Africa’s countries, whether it be through other countries or NGOs. This allows for the necessary infrastructures at the domestic level of these countries to be built up enough so that societal aspects such as the presence of private sectors and a private market, as well as the diminishing of corruption and mismanagement of foreign aid can take place to allow for African countries to not have to rely on nearly as much or any foreign aid.

Looking at Herbst and Mills outcomes today, even with the development of some large African countries, particularly Nigeria, Rwanda, and Ghana, it is unrealistic for these countries to be able to promote development across the continent that would create a stable and productive Africa by 2020, largely due to acts of current terrorism that are hindering the lesser developed countries from gaining any regional or foreign investment into potential private markets that could economically stabilize the countries.

 

 

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Investment in Tanzania

http://allafrica.com/stories/201612090045.html

I found this article interesting given some of the discussions we had at the end of class on Thursday, regarding aid vs. investment. Barclay’s Africa Group recently invested 32 billion as new capital into its branch in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The bank stated that it has confidence in the Tanzanian market and opportunities for growth. Barclay’s Africa asserts that it is committed to its “pan-African strategy and to supporting businesses in Tanzania.” Specifically, the natural resources sector and gas development are opportunities that the bank hopes to invest in and have growth.

We frequently discussed the downsides of foreign aid for the continent (e.g. mismanagement and corruption) in class, and began to touch on the potential value of investments as African countries’ economies grow. This investment is an example of confidence in Tanzania’s economy and opportunities for growth, which could serve as another positive step forward for economic development. Since Tanzania’s government is relatively stable, the country presents a good investment opportunity for foreign companies, and Tanzanian businesses will hopefully get on board too.

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